The danger of “hybrid warfare” from a sophisticated adversary: the Russian “hybridity” in the Ukrainian conflict

The term “hybrid warfare” is a new one that the West began to use to explain its failure to cope with asymmetric threats. Focusing on the war on global terrorism, the West temporarily withdrew its attention from traditional adversaries, such as Russia, which has used this gap and has audaciously returned to the stage as a global actor. Until the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and inflaming the Ukrainian crisis, most Western authors attributed “hybrid threats” mostly to non-state actors. But the Ukrainian scenario showed the true face of “hybridity” in the modern battlefield when practised by a powerful state actor. Russian “hybrid warfare” in Ukraine has already been seen as a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, that have been complemented with other instruments of national power – diplomatic, economic and information. The purpose of this article is, through an analysis of the Ukrainian scenario, to demonstrate that although the term “hybrid” is new, the concept itself is old and is a continuation of already seen doctrine from the Cold War era. Although “hybrid threats” can come both from state and non-state actors, the Russian interference in Ukraine is proof that they are especially dangerous for the West if, or when, they are initiated from a traditional, sophisticated adversary that has the capacity to use all forms of warfare.     

Comprehensive approaches,diverse coherences: the different levels of policy coherence in the Dutch 3D approach in Afghanistan

Since 2000, international organisations such as the UN, NATO and the EU, but also countries, have started to apply what has been called the comprehensive approach to crisis management. This article unpacks this comprehensive approach implemented by the Dutch in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan. It first borrows and expands a conceptual framework developed by De Coning and Friis. Subsequently, it maps the different sorts of coherence in the mission by applying the framework. It shows how in practice there was not one single comprehensive approach, but many different forms of interaction between a number of organisational units. Each interaction had its own distinct issues and its own level of coherence. The level of coherence differed depending on the level at which the interaction took place – strategic at headquarters level versus operational at field level – and at what point in the mission it happened – in most cases it moved towards more cohesion.     

复杂系统故障安全风险评价方法

复杂系统的安全风险涉及面广、影响因素多,因此需要系统的、可操作的方法来指导安全风险的评价过程。在系统的各类安全风险中,故障安全风险是由各种故障导致系统发生事故的风险,是最常见的系统安全问题,因此针对复杂系统的故障安全风险评价开展研究。复杂系统故障安全风险评价需要明确的评价参数和评价方法的支持,为此提出了复杂系统故障安全风险评价的流程、分层次的评价参数体系及评价方法,并通过示例来具体说明故障安全风险的评价过程,为解决复杂系统的故障安全风险评价问题提出了可行的思路。     

多模型估计的新分支——变结构多模型方法

作为多模型方法的新分支,变结构多模型方法(VSMM)是当前机动目标跟踪、故障诊断等领域中研究的热点.首先简述了VSMM方法的发展过程和近期动态,在对VSMM方法进行深入分析的同时针对其理论核心--模型集自适应(MSA)策略进行讨论;详细介绍了几种现存的典型VSMM算法;同时简述了VSMM方法的应用概况;最后指出了目前VSMM方法重点关注的问题热点和今后的研究领域.     

隐身榴弹表面吸波材料的抗压强度分析

在火炮发射隐身榴弹过程中,由于隐身榴弹的静不平衡、动不平衡,造成隐身榴弹在膛内运动过程中碰撞膛线,其表面涂敷的吸波材料将承受较大的接触力.发射过程中应保证不损伤吸波材料表面,确保吸波材料具有良好的吸波性能、不增加隐身榴弹的雷达散射截面.从理论上计算了隐身榴弹与膛线之间的接触力,为研制隐身榴弹用的抗压吸波材料提供了设计指标.     

圆柱壳稳定性分析的一种新方法

针对圆柱壳在复杂载荷作用下静力稳定性问题提出了一种新的求解方法.基于分离变量的方法,设定一组可涵盖任意边界条件的复数位移函数,将位移函数代入系统平衡方程后,圆柱壳的静力稳定性问题就可以转化为一个复系数八次多项式的求根问题.该特征方程的偶次幂系数项以及常数项为实数,而奇数次幂项均为纯虚数.研究表明,根的大小代表了圆柱壳端部作用力的强度,以及该作用力在离开这个边界一定距离上的衰减特性.分析了该新方法和经典方法的关系,并给出了一个各向同性圆柱壳在轴向压力作用下稳定性分析算例,得到了线弹性失稳解.和经典方法的结果比较表明,文中所提出的新方法适用可行,且和经典方法具有同样的精度.     

动态威胁环境下单无人机测向定位航迹优化算法

为解决单架无人机在动态战场环境下的测向定位问题,提出了一种基于动态窗口法的单机测向定位航迹优化算法。以最大化Fisher信息矩阵行列式为测向定位评价准则,在由动态探测雷达和静/动障碍构成的动态战场环境中,基于动态窗口法思想,将测向定位航迹优化评价准则由传统的单步最优原则扩展到对多步预测航迹的评价,同时考虑雷达探测和静/动障碍环境对预测航迹的影响,通过滚动时域方法控制无人机最优航向。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够使无人机在有效逃避雷达探测威胁以及规避环境中静/动障碍的条件下保证对目标的高精度测向定位,为解决动态战场环境下的单架无人机测向定位问题提供了新思路。     

Analysis of a production system in a general configuration

We consider a production system comprising multiple stations (or workshops) such as an entry station, a set of work stations, a central station, and an exit station, which are arranged in a general configuration. A worker (or a vehicle tool) is assigned to each station, who sends a part from the station to the destination station according to the required process path of the part. Any part is allowed to visit a work station more than once if its process path requires. We propose a new control strategy with the push policy for instructing each worker to send a part and the kanban mechanism for controlling the work‐in‐process (WIP) in each work station. As all work stations have limited local buffers, the central station is used for storing blocked parts temporarily. Such a production system is modeled as an open queueing network in a general configuration with a Markovian part sending policy and a machine no blocking mechanism. The queueing network is analytically characterized. Some important performance measures are compared with other control strategies. A semi‐open decomposition approach is applied to the queueing network for computing the blocking probabilities when parts arrive at the work stations. An algorithm is developed based on the semi‐open decomposition approach. Numerical experiments show the quality of the solutions obtained by the algorithm as well as a property of a performance measure. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 128–143, 2001     

一种快速解算火箭助飞鱼雷关机点方法

为解决火箭助飞鱼雷射程与关机点计算速度问题,运用Chebyshev正交多项式拟合曲线,提出了一种基于时间或能量关机的计算方法.可根据不同的射程快速解算助飞雷关机点,达到实时控制助飞雷射程的目的,与现有方法相比,计算简洁、迅速.最后给出了关机方法软件的仿真流程,并将该软件应用于某助飞雷仿真系统,论证了该方法的可行性.     

试论德尔菲法在公安情报学中的应用

德尔菲法又称专家调查法或专家咨询法，将其引入公安情报学中，对于事关公安工作长远的、战略的、宏观的问题进行预测和评价，对提高公安情报成果质量、提升情报工作水平具有重要意义。试从德尔菲法的定义、由来、特点、程序等基本原理入手，阐明该方法在公安情报学中的应用技巧，同时指出使用该方法应注意的事项以及其自身存在的不足。